Most major equity markets eked out small gains in November, but markets were far from subdued, with the S&P 500 falling 4.5% mid-month before recovering all its losses. The Nasdaq was even more extreme, at one stage down 9.5%.
The market rallied at the beginning of the month on news that the US government would reopen after a record 43-day shutdown, although expect further chaos as the agreement only provides funding through to the 30th of January.
From the highs of the 12th the selloff gathered steam as the odds of the US Fed cutting interest rates at its December meeting fell to 22% according to the betting market Polymarket. Having been as high as 90% at the end of October (orange line below), the odds have rebounded strongly, and a rate cut is currently priced as a near certainty.
Growth stocks and particularly the high-flying tech stocks bore the brunt of the selloff, despite some impressive earnings results, with analysts expecting earnings growth for the Magnificent 7 to increase by 22% in 2025, up from 15% in March. In fact, it was Nvidia’s earnings release that seemed to mark the bottom, with both revenue and profit up almost two thirds year-on-year.
The trillion-dollar crypto selloff
Crypto markets also sold off sharply through November, unwinding much of the June to October upswing. Bitcoin was down 17% in the month, extending a two month decline that has erased any gains over the last 12-months. Prices fell from a record high of US $126,223 in October into the low US $80,000s, before stabilising and ending November back above US $90,000.
Across the sector, major altcoins tracked lower alongside Bitcoin, and total crypto market capitalisation was reported to be more than 1 trillion US dollars below early October highs by month end.
Reported drivers included sizeable outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, weaker interest from major institutions following the October peak, and increased selling by short‑term holders. The downturn flowed through to Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy), one of the largest holders and the public face of Bitcoin boosting, which fell roughly 34% in November.
Donald “the crypto king” Trump was similarly burnt with the $TRUMP meme coin down about 90% year-to-date, and Trump-linked crypto ventures have reportedly knocked roughly US$1 billion off the family’s paper wealth.
Ironically, it has been little more than a month since Trump pardoned another crypto king, Changpeng Zhao, the billionaire founder of crypto exchange Binance, despite reports that Binance is running a trading platform for the Trump family’s crypto interests. Zhao had pleaded guilty and been sentenced to four months in prison for enabling money laundering on his exchange.
Silver surges
In contrast to crypto, gold had another strong month and has recovered most of the losses it experienced in late October. Silver however was the standout performer, gaining 16% in the month.
Silver has more than doubled in 2025, rising from roughly US$29/oz to record highs above US$58/oz, its strongest annual performance since the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the market in 1979. This has been driven by a rare convergence of tight fundamentals and supportive macro forces. The key driver is a deep structural supply deficit, with 2025 marking a fifth consecutive shortfall (about 95 million ounces this year), largely due to years of chronic underinvestment resulting in declining production.
Meanwhile, industrial demand remains near record levels (~677m oz), powered by solar, EVs, AI data centres and broader electrification, sectors where silver’s conductivity is hard to substitute. Finally, macro tailwinds have amplified the rally, expected Fed cuts and a softer USD are improving affordability, while inflation risk and geopolitical risks have lifted safe-haven and stockpiling demand. Investor momentum added fuel through
ETF inflows. With the silver price hitting record highs, analysts have similarly increased their price targets for 2026 to $60-70/oz, a sure sign that the main task of a sell side analyst is to add 10% to the current price and call it a forecast.
If you’d like to discuss the update above, or how market shifts may affect your investment portfolio, get in touch for a confidential discussion.