"If something cannot go on forever, it will stop" - Stein's Law
There has never been a time when this law of economist Herbert Steain was more applicable. We have technology stocks rising to mind blowing valuations, interest rates falling to new lows with talk in NZ of negative rates, debt rising to unimaged levels
How quickly things change. As I write this Auckland has recently joined Victoria in Australia by returning to lockdown following the recent unexplained outbreak of covid-19 in the community.
The June quarter was in stark contrast to the first 3 months of 2020. The recovery which began in the last week of March carried on unchecked until mid-June, when markets took a breather.
May saw a continuation of the very strong rebound in equity markets which began at the back end of March. The recovery has been as record breaking as the decline was, when markets capitulated and investors off-loaded anything they could to get into cash, in particular, USD's.
The pandemic which we are all tired of hearing about, analysing and prognosticating over delivered a new challenge to investors. Never before have we been faced with the task of valuing businesses which have lost all of their revenue and are surrounded by uncertainty about for how long, and how much will resume if things return to normal, if they do??
The sharp market sell-off has spelt the end of a decade long bull market in equities and we are almost certainly close to the end of a 40-year bull market in bonds.
The Covid-19 virus is a left field risk that has served as the catalyst to ignite a spectacular decline in the global equity market.
Financial markets have reacted to the disruption being wreaked by the Covid-19 virus. The impact of shutting down whole cities, and now countries is a new shock, one most of us have never experienced. It is a 'tail risk' a 'black swan' event, impossible to predict.
January was very much a month of two halves for global markets with the strong performance of 2019 carrying through into the new year before coronavirus fears (more below) bought markets back to earth.
What a difference a year makes. 12 months ago we were reeling from one of the worst quarters in living memory with virtually every asset class taking a battering.
After the sharp falls in equities during the fourth quarter of 2018, the first four months of 2019 brought a strong rebound.
November was yet another strong month for local equity markets with the Australian All Ords up 3.1% and the NZX 50 up 4.9% taking year-to-date returns to 26.4% and 28.4% respectively. This puts them on track for their best return since the GFC, something I'm sure no one was predicting back in January.
October was another good month for global equity markets (+2.6%), as central banks maintained their easing bias and diminished geopolitical tensions while Emerging markets (+4.2%) also rallied as investor's risk appetite increased
September was another strong month for risk assets with most global equity markets closing in the black.
Emerging markets led the way with a gain of +5.7% versus a gain of +2.2% for their developed market cousins.
US equities fell -1.6% in August following the late July cut in interest rates, as the yield curve inverted and the Fed flagged slowing economic growth. Unsurprisingly, volatility spiked on increased fears, with August experiencing 11 daily market moves greater than 1%
While global equity markets paused for breath in July the local markets continued to forge ahead with the NZX50 up 3.4% and the Australian All Ords up 3.0%, taking returns for both indices to 23% YTD.
Global equity markets rallied +6.6% in June as they shrugged off trade war fears, with central banks across the world indicating further stimulus was at hand. US markets led the charge to record highs.....
Turmoil returned to global equity markets in May following Donald Trump's latest salvo in the ongoing US/China trade war.
April was another strong month for global equities with the MSCI World Index rising 3.6%, taking gains for the year to 16.7% the strongest start to the year since 1987.
The equity market recovery rolled on in March with most major indices closing higher.
February saw a continuation of the strong rebound in equity markets which began in the last week of December when the Fed about turned on its tightening agenda.
Equity markets snapped back from December's carnage with the S&P 500 up 8.0%, its best January since 1987. Tech stocks led the charge driving the Nasdaq up 9.7% while the local NZX50 dragged the chain with a measly gain of 2.0%.
The roller coaster ride that has been global equity markets lately became more extreme in December with the MSCI World Index falling -7.5% despite rallying +5% in the last four days of the week.
Uncertainty reined in November as the general weakness in equity markets rumbled on for the first few weeks of the month...
The "October Effect" - or the "Halloween Effect" if you're American - received renewed impetus this month with global equity markets taking a battering.
The theory goes that stock markets tend to fall in October and is probably due to the October stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987.
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We could join the chorus of opinion about what is happening in global equity and bond markets but we really have no unique insights to add. In the quarter, and for the past few years, we have read numerous arguments for why we are approaching the end of this current rise in share.
August was an interesting month locally with the half yearly reporting season an opportunity for local managers to review their portfolios and gauge the mood of the market
After hitting new highs at the beginning of the month the NZ stock market eased slightly to end the month down a modest -0.2%. Meanwhile listed property paused for breath having gained 9.1% in the last five months.
Lately I have had a number of people ask me 'what are you investing in these days'?
To explain this, I really need to explain what we are trying to achieve, which of course boils down to what our clients want to achieve.
The 'balanced' portfolio has become an institution in the financial world. Equities and bonds are the main ingredients and the 'mix' determines the categories of balanced funds commonly used.
A question we are being asked about current portfolios is why we have so much in equities?
This is a fair question for retirees who rely on income from their portfolio and have a low tolerance for capital loss. It is also a fair question for someone seeking growth but with an emphasis on capital preservation.
The local NZX50 closed the '17/18 financial year with a whimper as it fell -0.7% for the month, ending the quarter down -0.9% but despite this gaining 15.6% for the year.
The local stock market gave up all of January's gains this month following a fall of -0.8% for the NZX50 while across the Tasman the ASX All Ordinaries rose a modest 0.2% albeit continued strength in the kiwi dollar reduced this to -0.9% in NZD terms
Market corrections are always uncomfortable. After a very strong start to the year in January, accompanied by talk of a 'melt-up', markets have suddenly decided instead that it was time for a 'melt down'.
December was another strong month for equities with increases of +2.6%, +2.0% and +1.0% for the New Zealand, Australian and US markets respectively, however the relative strength of the Kiwi dollar detracted somewhat from US returns which were -2.8% in NZD terms.
We are beginning to sound like a stuck record as equity markets seem to be hitting new record highs on a monthly basis.
The bull market in global equities continued to roll on in October with gains of +2.7%, +4.1% and +2.2% for the NZX50, Australian All Ords and US S&P500 respectively.
Global equities ended yet another strong month, up +2.3% (+1.6% in NZD), taking their gains to +5.4% (+6.5%) for the quarter and +18.8% (+19.8%) for the year.
The music continued to play in equity markets with the NZX50 up +1.6% in August, its eighth monthly increase in a row and its 2nd longest winning streak in the last 20 years. This was only trumped by the US where the S&P 500 recorded a record 10th positive month in a row.
July saw a continuation of the placid and rising equity market globally and locally. Global equities rose 2.8%, led by a 6% rise in Emerging Markets, and a 2% rise in the S&P500. The NZX50 rose 1.1% while Australia was flat.
Our portfolios continue to muddle along, with a number of our managers struggling with the very low volatility in markets and the high correlation between stocks.
Global equity markets rose +2.3% in May, led by the UK (+4.4%), Emerging Markets (+3.0%) and Japan (+2.4%), while closer to home markets were more subdued with the local NZX50 rising +0.5% and Australia's All Ordinaries falling -2.6%, largely on the back of weakness in the financial sector (-10% see below).
With a third of the year already gone the local NZX50 is currently up 7.2% while the Australian All Ordinaries and MSCI World Indices are up 5.3% and 8.2% respectively. Over 12 months NZ equities are up 8.2% vs 10.0% and 15.3% for the Australian and World markets.
For most NZ investors March 31 is the end of the financial year. It is always interesting to cast our minds back to what we were thinking this time last year. In our March 2016 newsletter, we described a world concerned about global growth.
The February reporting season passed relatively uneventfully on the local market with analysts upgrading their 2017 earnings forecasts for 62% of the companies reporting versus 38% that received downgrades, although the optimism was dampened by a slight fall in expected earnings growth to 5.8%.
Global equities continued on with the pre-Christmas rally in January, with the tech heavy Nasdaq index and Emerging Markets particularly strong, gaining 4.3% and 5.5% respectively. The S&P500 was up 1.8% but Europe and the UK were marginally weaker, down 0.6%, similar to the All Ords Accumulation Index in Australia, which fell -0.8%, mostly due to weakness in the banks.
